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The impact of climate change on wine sales

How are Italian consumption preferences changing?

In recent years, the wine sector has been experiencing significant changes, influenced by new consumer preferences. The phenomenon of climate change and rising summer temperatures has had a major impact on both production and consumption habits: starting in the summer of 2022, particularly in July, temperatures increased by 2.26°C above the average since 1800, leading to significant changes in the wine sector.

According to the International Organisation of Vine and Wine (OIV), global wine consumption has experienced a general decline in recent years; consequently, to cope with market changes and respond to new consumer needs, it is important to understand how wine consumption moves based on seasonality. This phenomenon is evident in the sales data of recent years in Italy, where there is a diametrically opposite trend during the year between the sales of red wines and the sales of white wines, sparkling wines, and bubbles. Specifically, with the rise in summer temperatures, there is a decrease in the consumption of red wines, in favor of white wines, sparkling wines, and bubbles, which can mitigate the effect of heat waves that now characterize the summer months.

Study objectives

So how does wine consumption change with seasonality?

We asked ourselves this question at Vino.com and with this study we aim to examine and explore how seasonality influences the choice and purchase of wine throughout the year, both in Italy and abroad. By analyzing our sales data with the support of industry studies on this topic, we will highlight how consumer habits change particularly during the summer months.

Climate change and summer temperatures

It is not news that in recent decades, average summer temperatures have increased significantly, with different impacts in the various regions. The data recorded during the summer period just passed, show that in Europe in August 2024, the average temperature was 1.54 ° C higher than the average for August in the period 1991-2020, while in Italy the increase was even more marked, with an average higher by 2.38 ° C.

Summer 2024 saw extremely high temperatures, with significant peaks in southeastern Europe, which faced intense heat stress throughout the season. The weather conditions contributed to making August one of the hottest months ever recorded in Italy and Europe.

In particular, Southern European regions have experienced higher temperature increases than the North, influencing wine consumption differently.

Sales data analysis

We analyzed the sales of different wine categories between 2021 and 2024 and clear consumption preferences emerged in the summer period compared to the rest of the year.

Rosé Wines

Going into detail, we immediately notice that rosé wines have gained popularity , going from a share of bottles sold equal to 2.91% in the first ten months of 2021 against 3.79% in the same period of 2024. Furthermore, the share of rosé wine bottles sold during the period June-August 2024 reached the maximum peak of 5.56% on average , compared to January-February 2024 when it stood at 2.36% on average.

This growing consumer interest in rosé wines is attributable to their versatility and ability to accompany a wide range of summer dishes, making them an ideal choice during the warmer months .

The best-selling rosé wines in the first ten months of 2024 were Salento IGT, Côtes de Provence and Toscana IGT , wines characterized by fruity, elegant and fresh notes . The Salento IGT and Côtes de Provence denominations, already popular in 2021, were joined in 2024 by the Toscana IGT denomination, which rose to third place in place of Cerasuolo d'Abruzzo DOC.

The growth in the share of rosé wines is related to the liveliness and elegance that make them particularly pleasant to the palate, while the surge in consumption in the summer months , compared to the winter months , depends on the delicate structure and good flavour of these wines, which are very pleasant in the warmer months.

All these characteristics have contributed to their growing popularity during the summer, when consumers look for refreshing wines, but with a distinctive character.

Sparkling Wines and Champagne

Although sparkling wines and Champagnes are always loved and appreciated by consumers, this category did not record a percentage increase in sales in the first ten months of 2024 compared to 2021. However, over the years, compared to consumption in the months of January-February, seasonality is evident: specifically in 2024, from 21.69% in January, the share of sparkling wines grew progressively as summer approached until reaching 31.69% in August.

This suggests that bubbles are particularly appreciated in the warm months. For the bubbles category, the three favorite denominations in the first ten months of 2024 were Champagne AOC , followed by Franciacorta DOCG and Conegliano Valdobbiadene Prosecco Superiore DOCG . If we compare the data for the first ten months of 2024 with 2021, however, we notice a change in consumer tastes, in fact the Conegliano Valdobbiadene Prosecco Superiore DOCG denomination has lost weight in recent years in favor of Champagne, which has risen to first place.

Champagne offers a more complex sensory experience thanks to its structure and is considered a symbol of prestige, which attracts consumers inclined to purchase exclusive products .

Franciacorta , an Italian classic method, is known for its pleasant flavour and freshness. It is characterised by great creaminess and elegance which make it a highly appreciated sparkling wine for its high quality standards.

Prosecco Superiore , known for its fresh, light profile, with notes of green apple, pear and white flowers, is typically appreciated for its versatility and informality of consumption.

The success of the three denominations over the years is related to their different characteristics, which make them unique and suitable for multiple occasions of use, both more informal and exclusive .

White Wines

As for white wines, the share of bottles sold in the first ten months of 2024 grew by 0.4% compared to the same period in 2021. The most significant data is related to seasonality , as white wine continues to be preferred as temperatures rise and especially during the summer months , with percentages that in 2024 ranged between 31.77% and 33.90% , compared to the January-February period of the same year, when the share of white wine averaged 21.80% . These percentages are significantly higher than in all other months of the year, but are above all increasing compared to the same period in 2021, when the share of white wine sold stood between 30.73% and 32.72% .

In particular, in the first ten months of 2024 the best-selling white wines were those of the Alto Adige DOC, Terre Siciliane IGT and Lugana DOC denominations. Wines particularly appreciated for their freshness, minerality, elegance and acidity, but above all ideal for a refreshing and light drink.

The surge in white wine consumption during the summer months in recent years is closely related to their natural freshness and medium-light body, making them suitable for summer consumption and perfect for enjoying on hot days.

Red Wines

Finally, red wine, the symbol par excellence of Italian wine production, saw a growth of 3.39% in the first ten months of 2024, compared to the same period in 2021, but in relation to seasonality , not only does it not follow the logic of the other categories, but has a diametrically opposite behavior. In fact, as temperatures increase, especially in summer, there is a clear reduction in red wine consumption .

Specifically, in 2024, the share of red wine gradually dropped to 23.92% in July from 51.96% in January , a figure that confirms a consumption trend opposite to that of other categories.

Although reds are growing, it is noticeable that the denominations of more structured red wines, such as Primitivo di Manduria DOC and Valpolicella Ripasso DOC have lost ground, to the detriment of less structured and fruitier red wines such as Salento IGT, Toscana IGT and Chianti Classico . Red wines with a more full-bodied and complex structure, higher alcohol content and important tannins are in fact less suitable for consumption and more demanding during the warmer months.

The above analyses paint a clear picture of emerging trends in wine consumption during increasingly hot summers. While white and rosé wines are gaining ground, structured reds are facing new challenges in the market.

The data presented highlights significant trends that are redefining the wine landscape. To delve deeper into these trends and discover how they are reflected in the choices available on the market, Vino.com offers a wide range of selected wines in line with new consumer preferences. By visiting the site, you can explore a vast selection of rosés, whites and bubbles that reflect current trends, offering a tasting experience suited to the needs of the moment.

Italy vs Europe: Comparison of Consumption Trends

Consumption trends in Italy

In 2024, Vino.com sales data confirm a consolidated trend in Italy: during the summer months, red wine sales show a significant decline compared to other categories, confirming a seasonal behavior in consumer preferences.

In particular, the consumption of red wines decreases significantly as summer progresses, going from 51.96% in January to 23.92% in July 2024, a figure that confirms a clear increase in sales of this category of wine in the winter months and a significant drop during the summer period.

At the same time, the percentage of white wine bottles sold increases dramatically during the summer months (June-August) compared to the winter months.

Sparkling wines and Champagnes also confirm the growth trend as we move from the winter months to the summer ones.

Furthermore, as previously mentioned, rosé wines not only grew overall from 2021 to 2024 (January-October period), but also confirmed the seasonal trend of whites and sparkling wines, characterized by a surge in sales in the summer months, demonstrating a growing preference for these types of wine as temperatures rise and the warmer season advances.

As regards the denominations, in recent years the denominations of more full-bodied and structured red wines , such as Primitivo di Manduria DOC and Valpolicella Ripasso DOC, have lost weight, leaving space for other less full-bodied and fruitier red wines , such as Salento IGT, Toscana IGT and Chianti Classico.

Among other categories, the white wines Alto Adige DOC and Terre Siciliane IGT and the rosé wines Salento IGT Côtes de Provence and Toscana IGT stood out as particularly appreciated wines for their ability to offer a pleasant and refreshing drink.

Consumption trends in Europe

Wine consumption preferences between Italy and Europe present interesting differences but also similarities, especially in the summer months , during which the main changes in sales are recorded.

Red wine is considered abroad the wine par excellence, even outside Italy its consumption undergoes seasonal variations, recording a decline in sales during the summer months compared to the January-February period. The real difference with Italy is represented by the overall percentage of red wine bottles sold, equal to 52.39% in the first ten months of 2024 and growing by +10.34% compared to the same period in 2021.

As regards white wines , taking into account the first ten months of the year, the overall share fell from 28.27% in 2021 to 26.14% in 2024, while maintaining a trend influenced by the summer seasonality with an average consumption peak of 31.98% in the months of July and August against 20.45% in January.

As regards sparkling wines , while in Italy sales data show a significant increase in the summer months, thus following a marked seasonality, abroad they show a more fluctuating trend over the months.

The fame of rosé goes beyond the borders of the country. However, it should be emphasized that the trend of rosé abroad does not follow the Italian one: its average consumption remained constant from 2021 to 2024 and is less concentrated in the summer period, but more distributed in the months of late spring and early summer.

Main differences between Italy and Europe

Overall, therefore, many more red wines are sold abroad than in Italy, white wines follow a seasonal trend, but are overall decreasing compared to our country, where they are growing timidly. Furthermore, sparkling wines do not follow a strictly seasonal trend as in Italy and represent a lower share abroad than in our country.

Finally, the consumption of rosé wines has remained almost constant over the years.

All these elements highlight how the summer seasonality influences wine consumption on the Italian market more significantly than on the international one, showing a diversification of consumer preferences.

The intrinsic characteristics of wines and their adaptability to high temperatures

Consumer preferences during increasingly hot summers are closely linked to the intrinsic characteristics of different types of wine. Understanding how these characteristics influence consumption can help explain why certain types of wine see their popularity increase or decrease in relation to summer temperatures.

Serving temperature and feeling of freshness

White wines, rosés, and sparkling wines are generally served at lower temperatures, between 6°C and 12°C, making them particularly fresh and enjoyable as summer temperatures rise (OIV, 2019). The low serving temperature enhances the freshness, acidity, and fruity and floral aromas of these wines, offering a pleasant sensation on the palate.

Conversely, structured red wines require a higher serving temperature, around 16°C-18°C, to best express their organoleptic characteristics (Jackson, 2014). However, during hot summers, the serving temperature may be less pleasant for consumers.

Sparkling Wines and Champagne 6 and 10°C

White wines 10 to 12°C

Rosé wines 10 and 12°C

Red Wines 16 and 18°C'

Impact of high temperatures on consumers' sensory preferences

High temperatures affect the perception of flavors and consumers' preferences. Several studies have shown that, during hot summers, consumers tend to prefer refreshing drinks with lower alcohol content and higher acidity (Spence & Wang, 2018). Wines with these characteristics provide a feeling of freshness and lightness, making tasting pleasant.

Red wines, with high alcohol content and robust tannins, may feel too full-bodied and astringent in summer. This leads consumers to lean towards white, rosé, and sparkling wines, which offer fresh, fruity, and higher acidity aromatic profiles (Tempere et al., 2016).

Relationship between rising temperatures and the chemical composition of wines

Climate change not only affects consumer preferences but also the chemical composition of grapes and wines.

Sparkling Wines and Champagne 6 and 10°C

Higher temperatures accelerate grape ripening, leading to increased sugar accumulation in the berries. This results in wines with higher alcohol content after fermentation (Jones et al., 2005). High-alcohol wines may be less suitable for summer consumption as alcohol enhances the sensation of heat in the body.

Reduction of acidity

High temperatures can reduce the natural acidity of grapes, as they accelerate cellular respiration and the consumption of organic acids such as malic acid (Sadras & Moran, 2012). Lower acidity leads to wines that are less fresh and vibrant, negatively affecting their appeal during warm months.

Aromatic changes

Aromatic changes: Warm climates can alter the synthesis of aromatic compounds in grapes, favoring the development of riper aromas while reducing fresh and floral ones (van Leeuwen & Darriet, 2016). This can make some wines less appealing for consumption during summer, a season when light and fruity aromatic profiles are preferred.

Conclusions and future perspectives

The search for new solutions, compatible with consumption habits influenced by climate change that makes our summers increasingly longer and hotter, must become a central topic of discussion, as looking to the future, it is very likely that the wine consumption trends observed during summer periods will continue to evolve in the same direction.

Observing the data, some trends emerge that could affect the wine market in the coming years:

• Rosé wines and sparkling wines might continue to gain popularity during the summer months, thanks to their natural freshness.
• Red wines may continue to see a decline in consumption during the hottest months, due to their natural body.
• Interest in low-alcohol wines may grow, especially among younger generations.

Consequently, it will be important for producers to adapt to new climate conditions to maintain consistent production in a context of rising temperatures. Furthermore, leveraging the opportunity to innovate and diversify offerings while ensuring sustainable and climate-resilient production will be key to successfully navigating this delicate context, where several new consumption dynamics are emerging.

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