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The impact of climate change on wine sales

How are Italian consumption preferences changing?

In recent years, the wine sector has been experiencing significant changes, influenced by new consumer preferences. The phenomenon of climate change and rising summer temperatures has had a major impact on both production and consumption habits: starting in the summer of 2022, particularly in July, temperatures increased by 2.26°C above the average since 1800, leading to significant changes in the wine sector.

According to the International Organisation of Vine and Wine (OIV), global wine consumption has experienced a general decline in recent years; consequently, to cope with market changes and respond to new consumer needs, it is important to understand how wine consumption moves based on seasonality. This phenomenon is evident in the sales data of recent years in Italy, where there is a diametrically opposite trend during the year between the sales of red wines and the sales of white wines, sparkling wines, and bubbles. Specifically, with the rise in summer temperatures, there is a decrease in the consumption of red wines, in favor of white wines, sparkling wines, and bubbles, which can mitigate the effect of heat waves that now characterize the summer months.

Study objectives

So how does wine consumption change with seasonality?

We asked ourselves this question at Vino.com and with this study we aim to examine and explore how seasonality influences the choice and purchase of wine throughout the year, both in Italy and abroad. By analyzing our sales data with the support of industry studies on this topic, we will highlight how consumer habits change particularly during the summer months.

Climate change and summer temperatures

It is not new that in recent decades average summer temperatures have significantly increased, with different impacts in various regions. Data recorded during the recent summer shows that in Europe in August 2024, the average temperature was 1.54°C higher compared to the August average of the 1991-2020 period, while in Italy the increase was even more pronounced, with an average of 2.38°C higher.

Summer 2024 saw extremely high temperatures, with significant peaks in southeastern Europe, which faced intense heat stress throughout the season. Weather conditions contributed to making August one of the hottest months ever recorded in Italy and Europe.

Specifically, Southern European regions experienced higher temperature increases compared to the North, differently affecting wine consumption.

Sales data analysis

We analyzed the sales of different wine categories from 2021 to 2024 and found clear consumption preferences during the summer period compared to the rest of the year.

Rosé wines

Going into detail, we immediately notice that rosé wines have gained popularity, increasing their share of bottles sold from 2.91% in the first ten months of 2021 to 3.79% in the same period of 2024. Additionally, the share of rosé wine bottles sold during the June-August 2024 period peaked at an average of 5.56%, compared to January-February 2024 when it was at an average of 2.36%.

This growing consumer interest in rosé wines can be attributed to their versatility and ability to pair with a wide range of summer dishes, making them an ideal choice during the hottest months.

The most sold rosé wines in the first ten months of 2024 were Salento IGT, Côtes de Provence, and Toscana IGT, characterized by fruity, elegant, and fresh notes. Alongside the Salento IGT and Côtes de Provence denominations, already popular in 2021, the Toscana IGT denomination emerged in 2024, climbing to third place, replacing the Cerasuolo d'Abruzzo DOC.

The growth of the share of rosé wines is related to their vibrancy and elegance, which make them particularly pleasant on the palate, while the surge in consumption during the summer months, compared to the winter months, is due to their delicate structure and good savoriness, very enjoyable in the warmer months.

All these characteristics have contributed to their growing popularity during summer, when consumers seek refreshing wines with a distinctive character.

Sparkling Wines and Champagne

Although sparkling wines and Champagnes are always loved and appreciated by consumers, this category has not recorded a percentage increase in sales in the first ten months of 2024 compared to 2021. However, over the years, compared to the consumption of the months of January-February, the seasonality is evident: specifically, in 2024, from 21.69% in January, the share of sparkling wines progressively grew as summer approached, reaching 31.69% in August.

This suggests that sparkling wines are particularly appreciated during the warm months. For the sparkling wine category, the three preferred denominations in the first ten months of 2024 were Champagne AOC, followed by Franciacorta DOCG and Conegliano Valdobbiadene Prosecco Superiore DOCG. Comparing the data for the first ten months of 2024 with 2021, we notice a change in consumer tastes: the Conegliano Valdobbiadene Prosecco Superiore DOCG denomination has lost ground in recent years in favor of Champagne, which has risen to the top position.

Champagne offers a more complex sensory experience thanks to its structure and is considered a symbol of prestige, attracting consumers inclined to purchase exclusive products.

Franciacorta, the Italian classic method, is known for its pleasant sapidity and freshness, characterized by great creaminess and elegance, making it a highly appreciated sparkling wine for its high-quality standards.

The Prosecco Superiore, known for its fresh and light profile, with notes of green apple, pear, and white flowers, is typically appreciated for its versatility and informality of consumption.

The success of the three designations over the years is linked to their different characteristics, which make them unique and suitable for multiple occasions, both more informal and exclusive.

White Wines

Regarding white wines, the share of bottles sold in the first ten months of 2024 increased by 0.4% compared to the same period in 2021. The most significant figure is linked to seasonality, as white wine continues to be preferred as temperatures rise, especially during the summer months, with percentages in 2024 ranging between 31.77% and 33.90%, compared to the January-February period of the same year, when the share of white wine stood at an average of 21.80%. These percentages are significantly higher than all other months of the year but are mainly increasing compared to the same period in 2021, when the share of white wine sold ranged between 30.73% and 32.72%.

In particular, in the first ten months of 2024, the best-selling whites were those from the designations Alto Adige DOC, Terre Siciliane IGT, and Lugana DOC. Wines particularly appreciated for their freshness, minerality, elegance, and acidity, but above all ideal for a refreshing and light drink.

The surge in white wine consumption during the summer months of recent years is closely linked to their natural freshness and medium-light body, making them suitable for summer consumption and perfect for enjoying on hot days.

Red Wines

Finally, red wine, the ultimate symbol of Italian wine production, saw a 3.39% growth in the first ten months of 2024 compared to the same period in 2021. However, in terms of seasonality, it not only defies the logic of other categories but behaves in a diametrically opposite manner. In fact, as temperatures rise, especially in summer, there is a sharp decline in red wine consumption.

Specifically in 2024, the share of red wine gradually dropped to 23.92% in July, starting from 51.96% in January, confirming a consumption trend opposite to other categories.

Although red wines are growing, it is noted that more structured red wine denominations, such as Primitivo di Manduria DOC and Valpolicella Ripasso DOC, have lost ground to less structured and fruitier red wines like Salento IGT, Toscana IGT, and Chianti Classico. Heavier and more complex red wines, with higher alcohol content and significant tannins, are less suited for consumption and more demanding during the hotter months.

The analyses outlined above provide a clear picture of the emerging trends in wine consumption during increasingly hot summers. While white and rosé wines gain ground, structured reds face new challenges in the market.

The data presented highlight significant trends that are redefining the wine industry landscape. To delve deeper into these trends and discover how they are reflected in the choices available in the market, Vino.com offers a wide range of selected wines in line with new consumer preferences. By visiting the site, you can explore a vast selection of rosés, whites, and sparkling wines that reflect current trends, offering a tasting experience tailored to today's needs.

Italy vs Europe: Comparison of consumption trends

Consumption trends in Italy

In 2024, sales data from Vino.com confirms a well-established trend in Italy: during the summer months, red wine sales show a significant decline compared to other categories, confirming a seasonal behavior in consumer preferences.

In particular, the consumption of red wines decreases significantly as summer progresses, dropping from 51.96% in January to 23.92% in July 2024, a figure that confirms a sharp increase in sales of this wine category in the winter months and a significant decline during the summer period.

At the same time, the percentage of white wine bottles sold soars during the summer months (June-August) compared to the winter months.

Sparkling wines and Champagnes also confirm the upward trend as the transition from winter to summer months progresses.

Furthermore, as previously mentioned, rosé wines not only grew overall from 2021 to 2024 (January-October period) but also confirm the seasonal trend of whites and sparkling wines, characterized by a surge in sales during the summer months, demonstrating an increasing preference for these types of wines as temperatures rise and the warmer season advances.

As for the denominations, in recent years the denominations of full-bodied and structured red wines, such as Primitivo di Manduria DOC and Valpolicella Ripasso DOC, have lost importance, making room for other lighter and more fruity red wines, such as Salento IGT, Toscana IGT, and Chianti Classico.

Among other categories, white wines Alto Adige DOC and Terre Siciliane IGT and rosé wines Salento IGT Côtes de Provence and Toscana IGT have stood out as particularly appreciated wines for their ability to offer a pleasant and refreshing drink.

Consumption trends in Europe

Wine consumption preferences between Italy and Europe show differences but also interesting similarities, especially during the summer months, when major sales changes are recorded.

Red wine is considered abroad the quintessential wine; even outside Italy, its consumption undergoes seasonal variations, with a decline in sales during the summer months compared to January-February. The real difference with Italy is represented by the overall percentage of red wine bottles sold, amounting to 52.39% in the first ten months of 2024, an increase of +10.34% compared to the same period in 2021.

As for white wines, considering the first ten months of the year, the overall share has dropped from 28.27% in 2021 to 26.14% in 2024, still showing a trend influenced by summer seasonality with an average consumption peak of 31.98% in July and August compared to 20.45% in January.

As for sparkling wines, while in Italy sales data show a significant increase during the summer months, following a marked seasonality, abroad they show a more fluctuating trend over the months. The fame of rosé goes beyond the borders of Italy. However, it should be noted that the rosé trend abroad does not follow the Italian one: its average consumption has remained constant from 2021 to 2024 and is less concentrated in the summer period but more distributed in the late spring and early summer months.

Main differences between Italy and Europe

Overall, abroad far more red wines are sold than in Italy; white wines follow a seasonal trend, but are generally in decline compared to our country, where they are timidly increasing. Moreover, sparkling wines do not follow a strictly seasonal trend as in Italy and represent a smaller share abroad compared to our country.

Finally, the consumption of rosé wines has remained almost constant over the years.

All these elements highlight how summer seasonality influences wine consumption in the Italian market more markedly than in the international one, showing a diversification of consumer preferences.

The intrinsic characteristics of wines and their adaptability to high temperatures

Consumer preferences during increasingly hot summers are closely tied to the intrinsic characteristics of different types of wine. Understanding how these characteristics influence consumption can help explain why certain wine varieties see their popularity rise or fall in relation to summer temperatures.

Serving temperature and feeling of freshness

White wines, rosés, and sparkling wines are generally served at lower temperatures, between 6°C and 12°C, making them particularly fresh and enjoyable as summer temperatures rise (OIV, 2019). The low serving temperature enhances the freshness, acidity, and fruity and floral aromas of these wines, offering a pleasant sensation on the palate.

Conversely, structured red wines require a higher serving temperature, around 16°C-18°C, to best express their organoleptic characteristics (Jackson, 2014). However, during hot summers, the serving temperature may be less pleasant for consumers.

Sparkling Wines and Champagne 6 and 10°C

White wines 10 to 12°C

Rosé wines 10 and 12°C

Red Wines 16 and 18°C

Impact of high temperatures on consumers' sensory preferences

High temperatures affect the perception of flavors and consumers' preferences. Several studies have shown that, during hot summers, consumers tend to prefer refreshing drinks with lower alcohol content and higher acidity (Spence & Wang, 2018). Wines with these characteristics provide a feeling of freshness and lightness, making tasting pleasant.

Red wines, with high alcohol content and robust tannins, may feel too full-bodied and astringent in summer. This leads consumers to lean towards white, rosé, and sparkling wines, which offer fresh, fruity, and higher acidity aromatic profiles (Tempere et al., 2016).

Relationship between rising temperatures and the chemical composition of wines

Climate change not only affects consumer preferences but also the chemical composition of grapes and wines.

Sparkling Wines and Champagne 6 and 10°C

Higher temperatures accelerate grape ripening, leading to increased sugar accumulation in the berries. This results in wines with higher alcohol content after fermentation (Jones et al., 2005). High-alcohol wines may be less suitable for summer consumption as alcohol enhances the sensation of heat in the body.

Reduction of acidity

High temperatures can reduce the natural acidity of grapes, as they accelerate cellular respiration and the consumption of organic acids such as malic acid (Sadras & Moran, 2012). Lower acidity leads to wines that are less fresh and vibrant, negatively affecting their appeal during warm months.

Aromatic changes

Aromatic changes: Warm climates can alter the synthesis of aromatic compounds in grapes, favoring the development of riper aromas while reducing fresh and floral ones (van Leeuwen & Darriet, 2016). This can make some wines less appealing for consumption during summer, a season when light and fruity aromatic profiles are preferred.

Conclusions and future perspectives

The search for new solutions, compatible with consumption habits influenced by climate change that makes our summers increasingly longer and hotter, must become a central topic of discussion, as looking to the future, it is very likely that the wine consumption trends observed during summer periods will continue to evolve in the same direction.

Observing the data, some trends emerge that could affect the wine market in the coming years:

• Rosé wines and sparkling wines might continue to gain popularity during the summer months, thanks to their natural freshness.
• Red wines may continue to see a decline in consumption during the hottest months, due to their natural body.
• Interest in low-alcohol wines may grow, especially among younger generations.

Consequently, it will be important for producers to adapt to new climate conditions to maintain consistent production in a context of rising temperatures. Furthermore, leveraging the opportunity to innovate and diversify offerings while ensuring sustainable and climate-resilient production will be key to successfully navigating this delicate context, where several new consumption dynamics are emerging.

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